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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 33

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.84 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model