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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 4-D.Chrisman punts 48 yards to BAL 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.89 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP