Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 90

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to CIN 36, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 45 for 9 yards (43-J.Hill). PENALTY on BAL-43-J.Hill, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 45.

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.72 EP
64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 90, worth -5.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model