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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 45

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.Brown pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Proche. Penalty on BAL-78-M.Moses, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model