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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 4-D.Chrisman punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.77 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model