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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 66-L.Kidd reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right guard to CAR 23 for -3 yards (49-F.Luvu).

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.84 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model