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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to NO 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 30, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP