Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 19 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

(11:59) 4-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to CAR 20, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.34 EP
76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model