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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 56

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to NO 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.45 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 56, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP