4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 4-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to CAR 39, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-A.Roberts to CAR 44 for 5 yards (50-A.Dowell; 42-C.Hansen). FUMBLES (50-A.Dowell), recovered by CAR-45-G.Ricci at CAR 41. 45-G.Ricci to CAR 41 for no gain (49-Z.Wood).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.21 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP