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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 51

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 4-B.Gillikin punts 38 yards to CAR 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-A.Dowell.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.91 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP