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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 37

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (24-C.Henderson), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.20 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model