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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to CAR 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.02 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model