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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 10-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to NO 24, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.61 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 35, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP