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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 34

Washington Commanders 13 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 6-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.35 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model