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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 17
Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 13
What Actually Happened
(:32) 4-D.Prescott right guard to WAS 15 for 2 yards (47-K.Hudson).
The Three Options
GO
+2.70 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.06 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.21 EP
KICK
+2.42 EP
- 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
- 7% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT
-0.09 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
