Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 79

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Washington Commanders 13

(8:58) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to WAS 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 15-D.Milne to WAS 34 for 9 yards (45-M.Overton; 85-N.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model