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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Washington Commanders 23

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 4-D.Prescott right guard to WAS 45 for no gain (51-D.Mayo). WAS-47-K.Hudson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.93 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model