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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 4

Washington Commanders 23 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 6-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +3.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 4, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP