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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 79

Washington Commanders 26 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to DAL 29, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.84 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 79, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 36, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP