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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 56

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Turpin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by WAS-34-C.Holmes at DAL 15. 34-C.Holmes to DAL 15 for no gain (9-K.Turpin).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.02 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 56, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model