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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to WAS 32, Center-45-M.Overton. 15-D.Milne MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.04 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model