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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 30

Green Bay Packers 6 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.89 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model