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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 27

Detroit Lions 3 – Green Bay Packers 9

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 17-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.25 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model