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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 40

Green Bay Packers 9 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon left tackle to DET 38 for 2 yards (23-M.Hughes).

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.45 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model