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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 66

Detroit Lions 6 – Green Bay Packers 9

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to GB 16, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-K.Nixon to GB 25 for 9 yards (38-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.91 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP