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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 34

Green Bay Packers 9 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 2-M.Crosby 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.34 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model