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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 25

Detroit Lions 13 – Green Bay Packers 16

What Actually Happened

(9:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 4-D.Chark to GB 22 for 3 yards (23-J.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.35 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model