Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 71

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

(10:38) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to GB 14, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-K.Nixon to GB 23 for 9 yards (51-J.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model