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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(8:35) (No Huddle) 13-A.Lazard left end to GB 31 for -1 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.91 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 26, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model