4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 31

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.14 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model