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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 69

Detroit Lions 3 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(:29) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to GB 29, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-K.Nixon to GB 45 for 16 yards (44-M.Rodriguez).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.32 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP