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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(6:26) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short left to 35-D.Jackson to HOU 14 for 27 yards (5-J.Pitre).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.58 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model