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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 43

Houston Texans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 11-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to IND 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.98 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model