4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 85

Houston Texans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to IND 38, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-K.Coutee to HOU 49 for 13 yards (29-M.Stewart; 49-J.Hansen).

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.97 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 85, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model