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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 36

Indianapolis Colts 28 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 7-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.72 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model