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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 19

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.30 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 19, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model