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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 48

Houston Texans 24 – Indianapolis Colts 31

What Actually Happened

(1:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 13-B.Cooks ran ob at IND 18 for 30 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.59 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP