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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 19

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 4-S.Ehlinger scrambles right end to HOU 14 for 5 yards (52-J.Greenard; 36-J.Owens).

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.04 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 19, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model