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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 45

Houston Texans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(:58) 11-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to IND 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model