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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 2 at the 2
Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 14
What Actually Happened
(6:11) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams.
The Three Options
GO
+3.38 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
- 47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 2, worth +0.43 EP
KICK
+1.99 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT
-0.12 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
