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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 49

Kansas City Chiefs 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 5-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to LV 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 18 for 8 yards (41-J.Winchester).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.67 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model