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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 35

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.74 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model