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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 10

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 10, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model