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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 62

Chicago Bears 13 – Minnesota Vikings 26

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to MIN 18, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.92 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model