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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 23

Minnesota Vikings 26 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.01 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model