Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 76

Chicago Bears 13 – Minnesota Vikings 29

What Actually Happened

(3:20) (Shotgun) 17-T.Boyle pass deep right intended for 10-C.Claypool INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Shelley at MIN 36. 20-D.Shelley to MIN 36 for no gain (10-C.Claypool).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.85 EP
64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 76, worth -2.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model