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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 29 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(:56) 14-R.Wright punts 35 yards to CHI 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 24 for -2 yards (25-T.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.61 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 61, worth -1.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 20, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model