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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 34

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 16-T.Gill punts 24 yards to MIN 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 5-J.Reagor ran ob at MIN 14 for 4 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.74 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP