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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 40

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Shotgun) 14-N.Peterman pass short middle to 18-D.Pettis to MIN 34 for 6 yards (39-C.Sullivan, 25-T.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.91 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model